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Kayrros Carbon Watch Introduces EU ETS Carbon Emissions Forecast

Kayrros Carbon Watch introduces EU carbon emissions forecasts

Kayrros is proud to announce a significant enhancement to Carbon Watch, aimed at providing the most complete and comprehensive view of carbon emissions within the ETS scope.

Introducing 2024 EU ETS Carbon Emissions Forecasts

Carbon Watch now includes the first end-of-year emissions forecast for 2024. The new feature is built on a robust model combining Kayrros historical carbon emissions measurements with weather forecast data and seasonality analysis to estimate monthly the end-of-year carbon emissions with remarkable accuracy. 

This addition empowers Carbon Watch users to navigate the EU ETS market with greater clarity and confidence.

EU ETS end-2023 prices: A slump foretold 

The collapse in EU carbon price at the end of 2023 might have come as a surprise to many but Kayrros Carbon Watch subscribers saw it coming.

Prices witnessed a notable slump from October 13 to December 15, 2023, falling to a yearly low of 69€ (-23%), due to such factors as mild winter temperatures, increased renewable energy supply, and low industrial activity due to economic headwinds. 

Carbon Watch users had the advantage of foreseeing these changes and anticipating the year-end price crash. The data revealed a 23% decrease in power emissions and a 15% decrease in overall cumulative emissions for 2022-2023. 

Looking Ahead: 2024 Market Insights

In 2023, carbon prices reached a peak in February. Will 2024 repeat the same pattern? 

Media reports suggest the outlook for 2024 is different, with investors holding bearish positions due to expected lower emissions from the power sector and a relatively low industrial activity, which has not fully recovered from the economic challenges of 2023. Additionally, carbon prices, typically correlated to natural gas prices, are projected to remain stable, barring unexpected market shifts or extreme weather events.

On the other hand, winter temperatures have been colder so far this year in much of Europe and Carbon Watch data show that implied demand for carbon allowances is higher year-to-date than at the same time last year.

Kayrros Carbon Watch: Your Go-to Source for the 2024 Carbon Market Outlook 

With its unparalleled near realtime view of compliance carbon emissions, Carbon Watch offers detailed, timely physical demand information by sector and country in EU and UK carbon credits.

Carbon Watch’s unique approach combines satellite imagery, geolocation data, and public data, delivering over 98% accuracy in carbon emissions data ahead of official sources. This comprehensive view of the carbon market equips users with the most complete and insightful data, enabling them to make informed trading decisions.

Interested in seeing the power of Carbon Watch in action?
Book a demo today and experience the future of carbon trading.