{"id":22937,"date":"2025-01-25T16:42:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-25T15:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/?p=22937"},"modified":"2026-03-19T16:38:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T15:38:50","slug":"frac-baby-frac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/fr\/frac-baby-frac\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cFrac, baby, frac?\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"22937\" class=\"elementor elementor-22937\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-648d5a9f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"648d5a9f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7b354dd9\" data-id=\"7b354dd9\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ab12072 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ab12072\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li><strong>\u201cDrill, baby, drill,\u201d said President Trump<\/strong> in his inaugural address on Jan. 20. The slogan first made headlines during the 2008 US Presidential election, when VP candidate Sarah Palin made it a trademark of her campaign speeches.<\/li><li><strong>Then and now, the slogan has been widely understood as cheerleading for oil and gas, but the US oil patch has dramatically changed since 2008.<\/strong>Drilling activity and the US rig count are no longer reliable indicators of production.<\/li><li><strong>In 2024, US onshore oil production and the US rig count actually parted ways as production jumped more than 4%<\/strong> while the rig count dropped, reflecting large efficiency gains.<\/li><li><strong>Frac counts are now much better than the rig count at forecasting US oil production. In the Permian, we ran regressions to find the best variables for forecasting production<\/strong>: rig counts only score 10%, while frac counts combined with efficiency score 91%.<\/li><li><strong>Not only has drilling become more efficient, so too has frac\u2019ing.<\/strong> Longer laterals and \u201ctrimul-fracs\u201d that let operators complete three wells at once have dramatically improved frac\u2019 ing efficiency.<\/li><li><strong>The map of production growth also has changed. The Permian is no longer in the lead.<\/strong> This year is starting with a 30% jump in Eagle Ford completions. Permian completions inched marginally higher, after falling steadily in H2 2024.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-57200ec elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"57200ec\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1c50868 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"1c50868\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-86e3911 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"86e3911\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"814\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP6-1024x926.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-22939\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP6-1024x926.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP6-300x271.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP6-768x694.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP6-13x12.jpeg 13w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP6.jpeg 1106w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-135e8ed elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"135e8ed\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-92fa212 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"92fa212\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li><strong>US operators adapted to lower oil prices and focused on profitability<\/strong> by driving innovations to increase fracking efficiency.<\/li><li><strong>A key innovation was \u201ctrimul-frac\u201d<\/strong> &#8211; completing 3 wells with a single frac spread.<\/li><li><strong>This raised the key efficiency metric of \u201ccompleted lateral per day\u201d to 4200 feet <\/strong>in the Permian, up from 2006 feet in 2023.<\/li><li><strong>More completed lateral per day <\/strong>means saving costs and bringing wells online sooner.<\/li><li><strong>Ovintiv also combined this innovation with the use of \u201ce-pumps\u201d.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>We saw a few instances of completing 4 wells with a single spread in 2024<\/strong> &#8211; does anyone have a name for that?<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-248ad47 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"248ad47\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP7-1024x975.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-22940\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP7-1024x975.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP7-300x286.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP7-768x731.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP7-13x12.jpeg 13w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP7.jpeg 1050w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-76b12b4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"76b12b4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-aa4ab96 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"aa4ab96\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li><strong>Once upon a time, the weekly US rig count was market moving<\/strong>, thanks to a close correlation between the number of active rigs in the US oil patch and future production.<\/li><li><strong>Over the years that relationship began to fray,<\/strong>for two main reasons. First, drilling innovations (lateral drilling and the steady lengthening of wells) caused a high degree of variability in well productivity.<\/li><li><strong>In addition, depending on market conditions, some wells weren\u2019t immediately completed and put on production after being drilled<\/strong>, but instead were added to a variable inventory of \u201cdrilled by uncompleted wells\u201d (DUCs).<\/li><li><strong>Even as the rig count started to move away from production trends,<\/strong> the frac count emerged as a more reliable predictor of supply, as well fracking is more tightly linked to production than drilling.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0498691 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"0498691\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8b44385 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"8b44385\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP8-1024x975.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-22941\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP8-1024x975.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP8-300x286.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP8-768x731.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP8-13x12.jpeg 13w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/TCP8.jpeg 1050w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9cc7423 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"9cc7423\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f4713af elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"f4713af\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-018d156 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"018d156\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li><strong>Frac counts provide a better estimate<\/strong> of future oil production than rig counts.<\/li><li><strong>Higher oil prices following the Russian invasion<\/strong> of Ukraine caused frac counts to rise.<\/li><li><strong>A lower price environment more recently drove investments into operational efficiency by US operators<\/strong>, resulting in a sharp increase in frac feet per day from mid-2023, along with longer well lateral lengths.<\/li><li><strong>A linear regression of the last 5 years<\/strong> of Permian oil production with rig counts leads to an R-squared of 10%, a metric showing low correlation and ability to predict.<\/li><li><strong>The same exercise with Permian oil production vs Kayrros active frac count and frac feet per day <\/strong>leads to an R-squared of 91%, showing very high ability to predict.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a85ba71 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"a85ba71\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-75b03d7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"75b03d7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3>In the news<\/h3><ul><li>President Trump declares a <a class=\"SZOzBJrCZwbbbHzPXHSuEhpWgpxqIuwE\" style=\"font-size: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/presidential-actions\/2025\/01\/declaring-a-national-energy-emergency\/\" target=\"_self\" data-test-app-aware-link=\"\">national energy emergency<\/a><span style=\"font-size: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';\"> (The White House).<\/span><p id=\"ember3877\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\">On the <a class=\"SZOzBJrCZwbbbHzPXHSuEhpWgpxqIuwE\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/boosting-gas-output-while-keeping-prices-low-tough-task-trump-maguire-2025-01-22\/\" target=\"_self\" data-test-app-aware-link=\"\">difficulties<\/a> of boosting oil &amp; gas production while keeping prices low for US consumers (Reuters).<\/p><\/li><li><p id=\"ember3877\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\">Oil falls from highs as <a class=\"SZOzBJrCZwbbbHzPXHSuEhpWgpxqIuwE\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/us-crude-futures-down-1-barrel-trump-plan-boost-fossil-fuel-output-2025-01-20\/\" target=\"_self\" data-test-app-aware-link=\"\">fears of additional US supply<\/a> in an oversupplied market offset sanctions and tariffs uncertainty (Reuters).<\/p><\/li><li><p id=\"ember3877\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\"><a class=\"SZOzBJrCZwbbbHzPXHSuEhpWgpxqIuwE\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/05cf69f5-0105-482d-aa93-19fab086559a\" target=\"_self\" data-test-app-aware-link=\"\">\u2018Drill, baby, drill\u2019, explained<\/a>: Wall Street could be reluctant to fund another drilling binge (FT).<\/p><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cDrill, baby, drill,\u201d said President Trump in his inaugural address on Jan. 20. The slogan first made headlines during the 2008 US Presidential election, when VP candidate Sarah Palin made it a trademark of her campaign speeches. Then and now, the slogan has been widely understood as cheerleading for oil and gas, but the US &#8230; <a title=\"\u201cFrac, baby, frac?\u201d\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/fr\/frac-baby-frac\/\" aria-label=\"En savoir plus sur \u201cFrac, baby, frac?\u201d\">Lire la suite<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":21271,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[130,128],"class_list":["post-22937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commodity-picture","tag-blog","tag-the-kayrros-eye"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tracking Fracking Activity Trends | Kayrros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Monitor fracturing activity in key shale basins. 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