{"id":22974,"date":"2025-06-30T17:27:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T15:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/?p=22974"},"modified":"2026-03-06T20:51:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T19:51:00","slug":"the-cliff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/de\/the-cliff\/","title":{"rendered":"The Cliff"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"22974\" class=\"elementor elementor-22974\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-648d5a9f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"648d5a9f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7b354dd9\" data-id=\"7b354dd9\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ab12072 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ab12072\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 id=\"ember1147\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__heading-3\">What the Edmond model says about Saudi Arabia&#8217;s play for market share<\/h3><p>\u00a0<\/p><ul><li><strong>OPEC\u2019s move to speed up planned production hikes in the face of US tariffs and economic headwinds has surprised many oil-market participants.<\/strong>Analysts interpret it as a bid to punish free-riders and heed Donald Trump\u2019s demands for low oil prices.<\/li><li><strong>Mean-field game (MFG) theory, a branch of game theory<\/strong>founded by Fields-medal laureate Pierre-Louis Lions and Kayrros co-founder Jean-Michel Lasry, suggests otherwise.<\/li><li><strong>Back in 2020, our MFG model of the oil market, dubbed Edmond, foresaw negative oil prices when few saw them coming.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Since late-2024, the risk of a price \u201ccliff\u201d <\/strong>&#8212; when Saudi Arabia leads OPEC in counter-intuitive steps to push the oil price over the edge and regain market share \u2013 has been flashing red.<\/li><li><strong>A \u201ccliff\u201d typically occurs when producers can amplify an exogenous negative price shock.<\/strong> US \u201dLiberation day\u201d initially looked like the perfect trigger but quickly fizzled.<\/li><li><strong>The effect of the \u201ccliff\u201d is typically amplified by high crude inventory levels<\/strong>, which has been the case with large builds in China and more storage capacity being built in the country.<\/li><li><strong>While oil prices have fallen, the market is still looking for a bigger trigger<\/strong>. It\u2019s just a matter of time before it finds one, Edmond suggests.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-57200ec elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"57200ec\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1c50868 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"1c50868\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-86e3911 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"86e3911\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"814\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP17-1024x926.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-22976\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP17-1024x926.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP17-300x271.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP17-768x694.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP17-13x12.jpeg 13w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP17.jpeg 1106w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f563968 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"f563968\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ea8ee2d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ea8ee2d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li><strong>Bearish US policy signals did not come in a vacuum.<\/strong>After edging down in late 2024-early 2025, global crude oil stocks have bounced back with a vengeance,\u00a0surging by roughly 2 mb\/d on average from late February to the end of May,\u00a0signalling mounting oversupply.<\/li><li><strong>Defying expectations of looming peak domestic demand, China has massively increased its crude storage capacity and has been leading the global stock build, much as it did during Covid-19. <\/strong>Overall Chinese crude onshore, above-ground stocks built by about 800 kb\/d over the same period of 2025, and 1 mb\/d between February 10 and May 21. Stocks have since continued to rise, hitting an all-time high on June 9, and substantially exceeding previous 2020 and 2023 records (hit at the peak of the Covid lockdowns).<\/li><li><strong>Also as in previous periods of building, Shandong province, home to the so-called teapot refineries, has been leading the national trend, reaching its own record high levels.<\/strong> Yet its share of the overall Chinese builds is lower than before. Stocks in South and East China also shot up.<\/li><li><strong>Likewise, the latest Chinese builds weren\u2019t limited to teapots.<\/strong> State-owned enterprises (SOEs) also posted dramatic gains. CNOOC\u2019s brand new Dongying terminal, which appears earmarked for strategic stocks, dominated recent builds in Shandong.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-85ff62a elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"85ff62a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-248ad47 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"248ad47\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"816\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP18-816x1024.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-22977\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP18-816x1024.png 816w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP18-239x300.png 239w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP18-768x963.png 768w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP18-10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TCP18.png 1196w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 816px) 100vw, 816px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-76b12b4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"76b12b4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-aa4ab96 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"aa4ab96\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li><strong>Edmond is the first oil market model to factor in crude oil inventories<\/strong>, thanks to comprehensive crude stock data available since the launch of Kayrros Crude Oil Intelligence in 2016.<\/li><li><strong>The model shows how OPEC revenue optimization hinges on conflicting price and market-share goals.<\/strong> Hence the market\u2019s cycling between gradual price increases, when high-cost marginal producers are incentivized to take market share from OPEC, and steep selloffs, when marginal producers are flushed out of the market and OPEC regains market share.<\/li><li><strong>For several months, Edmond had shown the market was itching for an exogenous shock that would cause a \u201ccliff\u201d formation.<\/strong>Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation day\u201d had all the hallmarks of such a trigger. Sure enough, OPEC responded by hiking supply.<\/li><li><strong>\u201cLiberation day\u201d lasted just a day, though, and the market is still looking for an opportunity to take prices much lower.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0498691 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"0498691\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9cc7423 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"9cc7423\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a85ba71 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"a85ba71\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-75b03d7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"75b03d7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3>In the news<\/h3><ul><li>EIA forecasts a <a class=\"SZOzBJrCZwbbbHzPXHSuEhpWgpxqIuwE\" style=\"font-size: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/24979351-eb45-431d-b77c-b8a15cf9908a?_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_0M7PJuFcm6UMiRW3jJKXSOfasW4qo653c9MCDeQMktLpjlqd3u1JlKvIKBD7m9NVxTktF\" target=\"_self\" data-test-app-aware-link=\"\">drop in US crude oil production<\/a><span style=\"font-size: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';\"> in 2026 (FT)<\/span><\/li><li>OPEC+ production hikes increase risk of <a class=\"SZOzBJrCZwbbbHzPXHSuEhpWgpxqIuwE\" style=\"font-size: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-06-09\/oil-starts-summer-on-borrowed-time-as-opec-fuels-surplus-threat?_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_0M7PJuFcm6UMiRW3jJKXSOfasW4qo653c9MCDeQMktLpjlqd3u1JlKvIKBD7m9NVxTktF\" target=\"_self\" data-test-app-aware-link=\"\">oil market imbalance in H2 2025<\/a><span style=\"font-size: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';\"> (Bloomberg)<\/span><\/li><li>Crude calendar spread options open interest <a class=\"SZOzBJrCZwbbbHzPXHSuEhpWgpxqIuwE\" style=\"font-size: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-06-05\/traders-flock-to-niche-options-market-to-bet-on-crude-oil-glut?_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_0M7PJuFcm6UMiRW3jJKXSOfasW4qo653c9MCDeQMktLpjlqd3u1JlKvIKBD7m9NVxTktF\" target=\"_self\" data-test-app-aware-link=\"\">spikes<\/a><span style=\"font-size: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';\"> (Bloomberg)<\/span><\/li><li><strong style=\"font-size: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';\">Read our <\/strong><a class=\"SZOzBJrCZwbbbHzPXHSuEhpWgpxqIuwE\" style=\"font-size: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';\" tabindex=\"0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/trump-has-opened-the-door-to-a-new-saudi-oil-price-war-21d2209a?_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_0M7PJuFcm6UMiRW3jJKXSOfasW4qo653c9MCDeQMktLpjlqd3u1JlKvIKBD7m9NVxTktF\" target=\"_self\" data-test-app-aware-link=\"\"><strong>Op-Ed in Barron&#8217;s<\/strong><\/a><strong style=\"font-size: inherit; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol';\"> on the latest OPEC supply hike and the Edmond model.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What the Edmond model says about Saudi Arabia&#8217;s play for market share \u00a0 OPEC\u2019s move to speed up planned production hikes in the face of US tariffs and economic headwinds has surprised many oil-market participants.Analysts interpret it as a bid to punish free-riders and heed Donald Trump\u2019s demands for low oil prices. Mean-field game (MFG) &#8230; <a title=\"The Cliff\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/de\/the-cliff\/\" aria-label=\"Mehr Informationen \u00fcber The Cliff\">Weiterlesen<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":6996,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[130,128],"class_list":["post-22974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commodity-picture","tag-blog","tag-the-kayrros-eye"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Cliff - Kayrros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/de\/the-cliff\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Cliff - Kayrros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What the Edmond model says about Saudi Arabia&#8217;s play for market share \u00a0 OPEC\u2019s move to speed up planned production hikes in the face of US tariffs and economic headwinds has surprised many oil-market participants.Analysts interpret it as a bid to punish free-riders and heed Donald Trump\u2019s demands for low oil prices. 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