{"id":22909,"date":"2024-11-18T15:52:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-18T14:52:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/?p=22909"},"modified":"2026-01-30T16:08:17","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T15:08:17","slug":"what-geopolitical-risk-premium-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/de\/what-geopolitical-risk-premium-2\/","title":{"rendered":"What geopolitical risk premium?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"22909\" class=\"elementor elementor-22909\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-648d5a9f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"648d5a9f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7b354dd9\" data-id=\"7b354dd9\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-527b72e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"527b72e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul>\n<li>\n<pre class=\"reader-text-block__code-block\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin-right: -24px; margin-bottom: 32px; margin-left: -24px; padding: 32px; border-color: #ffffff; border-style: none; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; background: none 0% 0% \/ auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box #293138; font-family: 'SF Mono', Consolas, 'Roboto Mono', 'Noto Mono', 'Droid Mono', 'Fira Mono', 'Ubuntu Mono', 'Oxygen Mono', 'Lucida Console', Menlo, Monaco, monospace; border-radius: 8px; color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5; text-wrap-mode: wrap; text-align: start;\"><code style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; background: none 0% 0% \/ auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); outline: #ffffff none 0px; font-family: 'SF Mono', Consolas, 'Roboto Mono', 'Noto Mono', 'Droid Mono', 'Fira Mono', 'Ubuntu Mono', 'Oxygen Mono', 'Lucida Console', Menlo, Monaco, monospace; line-height: 1.5; border: 0px none #ffffff;\">This is the first edition of The Commodity Picture - and we\u2019re very excited about it.\n\u00a0\nThe Commodity Picture gives you a new perspective on trending factors currently impacting commodity prices, with a unique view from the sky.\u00a0\nExpect a short letter in your inbox at the beginning of each month with a key trend deciphered with satellite images, a couple of charts, links to explore further.\n\u00a0\nA fresh angle on a hot topic, to step back on your busy day in the markets.<\/code><\/pre>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ab12072 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ab12072\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 32px; margin-left: 0px; padding-left: 32px; border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); border-style: none; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; vertical-align: baseline; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, 'system-ui', 'Segoe UI', Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', 'Fira Sans', Ubuntu, Oxygen, 'Oxygen Sans', Cantarell, 'Droid Sans', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Lucida Grande', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); line-height: 1.5; text-align: start;\">\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 8px; padding-left: 8px; border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); border-style: none; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; vertical-align: baseline; background: none 0% 0% \/ auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);\"><span style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); border-style: none; border-width: 0px; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; vertical-align: baseline; background: none 0% 0% \/ auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); outline: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9) none 0px; font-weight: 600;\">Geopolitical tensions have caused the highest disconnect<\/span> between Brent prices and fundamentals since at least May 2016.<\/li>\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 8px; padding-left: 8px; border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); border-style: none; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; vertical-align: baseline; background: none 0% 0% \/ auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);\"><span style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); border-style: none; border-width: 0px; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; vertical-align: baseline; background: none 0% 0% \/ auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); outline: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9) none 0px; font-weight: 600;\">A Q4 collapse in oil prices forecast earlier this year<\/span> by many analysts on the back of weak Chinese demand and ample supply capacity<span style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); border-style: none; border-width: 0px; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; vertical-align: baseline; background: none 0% 0% \/ auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); outline: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9) none 0px; font-weight: 600;\"> failed to materialize yet<\/span>. Heightened Middle East tensions and fears of strikes on Iranian oil facilities have put a floor under prices, at least until now.<\/li>\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 8px; padding-left: 8px; border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); border-style: none; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; vertical-align: baseline; background: none 0% 0% \/ auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);\"><span style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); border-style: none; border-width: 0px; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; vertical-align: baseline; background: none 0% 0% \/ auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); outline: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9) none 0px; font-weight: 600;\">The geopolitical risk premium is proving hard to justify<\/span> as fears of strikes on Iranian oil facilities have subsided, while the demand outlook remains bearish.<\/li>\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 8px; padding-left: 8px; border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); border-style: none; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; vertical-align: baseline; background: none 0% 0% \/ auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);\"><span style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); border-style: none; border-width: 0px; border-image: none 100% \/ 1 \/ 0 stretch; vertical-align: baseline; background: none 0% 0% \/ auto repeat scroll padding-box border-box rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); outline: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9) none 0px; font-weight: 600;\">On current developments, fundamental factors seem set to reassert themselves<\/span>and the geopolitical risk premium has already started to weaken.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-57200ec elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"57200ec\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1c50868 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"1c50868\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-86e3911 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"86e3911\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"789\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP1-1024x898.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-22911\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP1-1024x898.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP1-300x263.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP1-768x674.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP1-14x12.jpeg 14w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP1.jpeg 1140w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-135e8ed elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"135e8ed\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-92fa212 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"92fa212\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul>\n<li><strong>OPEC+ spare capacity stands at least at 5.6MMb, the highest level since Q4 2021<\/strong>. This is a conservative estimate that excludes capacity from Lybia (shut-ins), Iran and Russia (sanctions), and Mexico (declining production), and doesn\u2019t factor in capacity increases (eg UAE).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-248ad47 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"248ad47\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"594\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP2-1024x676.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-22912\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP2-1024x676.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP2-300x198.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP2-768x507.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP2-18x12.jpeg 18w, https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/TCP2.jpeg 1488w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-76b12b4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"76b12b4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-aa4ab96 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"aa4ab96\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul>\n<li><strong>Crude oil inventories data enables identification of market regimes.<\/strong> It shows the oil market is currently driven by geopolitics.<\/li>\n<li><strong>On current developments, fundamental factors seem set to reassert themselves<\/strong> and the geopolitical risk premium has already started to weaken.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9cc7423 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"9cc7423\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f4713af elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"f4713af\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a85ba71 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"a85ba71\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-75b03d7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"75b03d7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3>In the news<\/h3>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Oil <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/wti-crude-oil-futures-fall-polls-start-closing-us-election-2024-11-06\/\">fell<\/a> on Wednesday following Donald Trump&#8217;s US election victory, as the dollar was set for its largest one day gain since 2020 (Reuters).<\/li>\n<li>Aramco <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-11-05\/aramco-cuts-oil-prices-to-asia-for-december-after-opec-delay\">lowered oil selling prices<\/a> to Asia for December after OPEC+ members decided to push production increases by one month (Bloomberg).<\/li>\n<li>Economic headwinds and<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-11-05\/diesel-market-flashes-a-warning-sign-in-india-as-growth-slows\"> low diesel demand<\/a> in India (Bloomberg).<\/li>\n<li>And an old one, but on topic today: Wall Street Says a Trump Presidency <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-07-26\/wall-street-says-a-trump-presidency-could-send-oil-prices-lower\">Could Send OIl Prices Lower (Bloomberg, July 2024).<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is the first edition of The Commodity Picture &#8211; and we\u2019re very excited about it. \u00a0 The Commodity Picture gives you a new perspective on trending factors currently impacting commodity prices, with a unique view from the sky.\u00a0 Expect a short letter in your inbox at the beginning of each month with a key &#8230; <a title=\"What geopolitical risk premium?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/de\/what-geopolitical-risk-premium-2\/\" aria-label=\"Mehr Informationen \u00fcber What geopolitical risk premium?\">Weiterlesen<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":19731,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[130,128],"class_list":["post-22909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commodity-picture","tag-blog","tag-the-kayrros-eye"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What geopolitical risk premium? - Kayrros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.kayrros.com\/de\/what-geopolitical-risk-premium-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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